In 2024, the big story driving most of the major futures markets is when and how much the Fed will cut interest rates. Individual FOMC members have suggested anywhere from zero cuts to as many as six, with most members suggesting two to four cuts. The current CME Fed Funds Probability Matrix suggests six cuts by December, though that number could change during the year.
Whatever the number, these actions will have ripple effects throughout global central banks and markets. The European Central Bank may follow the US as the ECB appears to think that inflation is contained. Because interest rates are key to understanding future valuation for companies and governments, whether and how much they are reduced will impact market prices in almost all asset classes.
Senior Economist and Currency Expert Stephen Jonathan joined us on this week’s episode of “See the Futures” to break down some of the major economic issues for the global economy and how they might affect the futures markets in 2024.
Additional topics discussed in this free livestream:
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Benefits of nearshoring vs. offshoring the supply chain
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What the end of negative interest rate policy (NIRP) might mean for Japan
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Effect of possible SEC regulation on Bitcoin performance (and what happens after the SEC decision)
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Why reintroduction of fiscal restraints suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic will slow rate cuts for the ECB
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Chart analysis of the Fed’s balance sheet and money supply, both sourced from the FRED database
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